With the start of December looking a whole lot like how November trading went, the dollar is under the cosh and that is seeing EUR/USD push higher on the day to 1.1970 from lows around 1.1930 seen at the start of Asia Pacific trading.
The rejection of 1.2000 yesterday saw price pull back towards the 100-hour moving average (red line) and the 38.2 retracement level of the recent swing move higher since last week, before buyers stepped in to seize back near-term control.
Right now, we're back in similar territory to the start of trading yesterday as buyers are looking poised once more to try and retest the 1.2000 handle.
Is the third time the charm for EUR/USD to break the figure level this year?
The ECB is seemingly less perturbed this time around than they were in late August/early September, but that doesn't mean they will give a free pass if we see price start to run a little too far, too fast.
That said, the transitional narrative in the market arguably makes this development possibly an inevitable one especially if one would argue that the dollar is set for steeper declines over the next few years considering the risk/growth backdrop.
For now, risk can be defined and limited by the key near-term levels pointed out above so that is the best we can go on to try and formulate a bias as to whether the market is going to keep playing the current levels to start December or chase an early break.