Upside move stalls after failing to post a daily close above 1.1700
Daily resistance from the 38.2 retracement level @ 1.1709 and the swing region between 1.1720-30 has helped to stall the upside move overnight and since then the pair has been trading under the 1.1700 handle. Although the trading range today remains narrow, it's a bad first signal for buyers.
Looking at the near-term chart:
Price has broken below the near-term trendline support and is holding up barely with some support from yesterday's low @ 1.1663. But the break of the trendline support will not be a good form of encouragement definitely.
However, as long as price stays above the two key hourly moving averages then the near-term upside bias remains intact. Right now, the 100-hour MA (red line) sits at 1.1633 near the 23.6 retracement level of the recent swing higher so that will be a key region of support should price move lower from here.
The key event risk on the day will be US Q2 GDP figures so we may have to wait until the US session before any clear move in the pair will be observed.
Support
- 1.1631-33 (23.6 retracement level on H1, 100-hour MA)
- 1.1600 (bids, week's lows)
- 1.1587 (200-bar MA on H4)
- 1.1568 (38.2 retracement level, 200-hour MA)
- 1.1540-50 (swing region)
- 1.1513 (100-bar MA on H4)
- 1.1500 (bids, swing region)
Resistance
- 1.1700 (daily resistance)
- 1.1720-30 (swing region)
- 1.1750-55 (swing region, 100-day MA)
- 1.1790-00 (July high, offers)
- 1.1840-50 (swing region)
