EUR/USD nudges a little higher to test key near-term levels
The pair moves to a session high of 1.0828, and is testing the 100-hour MA (red line) currently @ 1.0820 as buyers look to try and wrestle back some near-term control following a brief dip under the 1.0800 handle in early trades.
There is also the near-term trendline resistance @ 1.0825, so that alongside the 100-hour MA will be a key spot for sellers to defend for the time being.
Further resistance is then seen close to 1.0845-50 before the 200-hour MA (blue line) comes into play @ 1.0867, close to the Friday high @ 1.0876.
The risk mood in the market remains fairly skittish for the most part, and that is not helping the pair find much direction over the past few trading sessions.
For now, the dollar side of the equation remains a dominant factor but sellers can also rely on the euro side of the equation to consider downside pressures in the pair.
There is still no coordinated fiscal response from EU member states in dealing with the virus fallout, and the recent Germany-ECB squabble only serves to draw more flak to potential complications within the bloc moving forward.
That said, the reopening of economies across the region is a positive signal but as South Korea and Wuhan has shown, things can be far from straightforward.
Risk will remain a key factor in driving the dollar to start the week, with Fed speakers set to be the ones to watch today. Perhaps there will be more fight back against negative rates and that could set a floor for short-term yields i.e. helping the dollar.
In any case, the risk levels for sellers can be clearly defined as per the above. For buyers, there is much work to do but so far they have done well to avoid a real run under the 1.0800 handle since trading last week.
Support around 1.0767-85 remains key before the 24 April low comes into play @ 1.0727.
