Buyers disappointed
The EURUSD on Friday, joined in on the dollar buying/end of month dollar buying run. Momentum was increased after the pair fell below its 200 hour moving average/50% of the move up from the April 22 swing low (last test of 200 hour MA). The 100 day moving averages and broken without much problem, and the price bottom near a swing area between 1.20145 and 1.20209.
Today, the Asian session saw a dip back down toward that level (with a small break to a low of 1.20125), but bounced higher in the late Asian/early European session. The price high has been able to extend back above the 100 day moving average at 1.2053. The high reached 1.20571. However, the 4 hourly bars above the moving average line could not muster anymore momentum, and the buyers have tilted more toward the selling side in early North American trading.
What next?
Given the failure above the 100 day moving average, it says to me the buyers had their shot.
Looking at the 5 minute chart below, the correction higher today also stalled near the 38.2% retracement of the trend move down started on late Thursday (and finishing today). The inability to get above that level as well (or move to the 200 hour MA at 1.2069), keeps the sellers more in control. The correction higher was a modest, plain variety one. It would take a move back above the 100 day MA, and then 38.2% at 1.20569 to hurt that idea.
On the downside, watch 1.2039 and 1.20319 (and moving higher). They represent the 100 and 200 bar moving averages on the 5 minute chart. Getting below would reinforce a more bearish bias.
