The ECB decision, Lagarde presser and CPI have all gone in a mixing bowl and the result is a mix of different ingredients that has market traders continue to be unsure the next directional move for the pair.
The price fell to a new session low of 1.21489. but that was above the Monday low of 1.21442. The pair rotated higher in the process cracked back above the 100 and 200 hour moving averages at 1.21745 and 1.21836 on its way to a high price 1.2194.
Subsequently, the price has moved back to the downside, and back below the moving averages levels (and a swing area which is mostly between those levels – see green numbered circles) and the price is currently trading at 1.2164 as I type.
I could pretend to understand what the technicals are saying, but could not be too sure given the up and down price action.
Nevertheless, being consistent requires defining the bias as more negative below the moving average levels. Stay below is more bearish. On the downside, getting below the low from today at 1.2148 and the low for the week at 1.21442, should be more bearish. The high to low trading range for the week is only about 74 pips. That is the lowest range going back to November 2019. A new low for the week should solicit more selling simply on the back of expanding what has been a very narrow trading range.