Ups and downs today

The EURUSD has had it's share of ups and downs today. We are currently on one of the "ups".

The pair has just moved above the 100 hour MA at 1.12979 level and looks toward a topside trend line at 1.1303. The high for the day reached 1.1309. The price is also back above the 1.12885 level. That was the swing low from January 24th. The level has sorta been a bullish above/bearish below level for traders this week. We are back above.

Ups and downs today

Let's face it, traders are struggling with data today in the US, and the overall weak data in Europe.

There are a lot of balls in the air:

  • The retail sales and other data today in the US today led to sharp declines in US GDP expectations.
  • Europe is weak.
  • China is weak.
  • Trade talks are a wild card.
  • The debt bill has yet to be signed.
  • German 10 year yields are down to 0.10%. Its getting close to 0.0%. That's low.

When all those balls are in the air and uncertain as to how the cards will be played, that leads to buying one minute/selling the next.

So do you sell high/buy low or look for the break and run?

All the above, but pick your spots. If 1.1288 is a level of importance that if broken to the downside is bearish, go with it. Put a stop on a move back above and hope for the best.

If Tuesday's low at 1.12566 is a level to take profit/go long, go with it. Put a stop on a break to new lows.

If the trend line tested now is a level to sell against, go for it. Put a stop on a break above.

If you have a fundamental preference (there are stories for both sides), find your technical spots either at lows (if bullish) or at highs (if bearish). However understand, that the story can change and reverse. You don't want it to run away.