EUR/USD eases to session low as dollar keeps firmer

Technical Analysis

Author: Justin Low | eurusd

EUR/USD falls to a low of 1.1126, down by about 0.5% today

EUR/USD D1 17-03
The pair has been trading very choppily recently as we see the dollar come back into favour amid funding pressures and also a recovery in Treasury yields over the past week.

But at the same time, the pair fell off yesterday as the dollar was pressured following the fed emergency decision - which saw a 100 bps rate cut and relaunch of QE.

Then, there is also the fact that there is the European bonds selloff over the past few sessions - suggesting some possible outflow in the euro as equities are also battered.

There are many moving parts in the equation right now but the technical picture may offer some help in trying to figure out the situation.

To the downside, support and risk can be clearly defined by the 100 and 200-day MA (red and blue lines respectively) @ 1.1069 and 1.1098 respectively. Those are levels that have limited the downside momentum recently and will be key ones to watch this week.

Meanwhile, topside momentum is also limited just above 1.1200 for now:

EUR/USD H1 17-03
The recovery yesterday stalled after testing the 100-hour MA (red line) before backing off and the key hourly moving averages @ 1.1192 and 1.1259 will act as key resistance levels to cap any potential gains as sellers maintain a more bearish near-term bias.

As such, trading in the pair is sort of locked in a battle between a potential break under the key daily moving averages or a break above the key hourly moving averages.

Those will provide a key indication from a technical perspective to try and gauge the extent of the moving parts in the fundamental story, as to which side or which direction EUR/USD is going to break next.

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