The run below the 2019 lows fails

The EURUSD is extending to new session highs after US data (it was mixed) and some comments from ECB Lane who has said the ECB decision was not a dramatic policy move but a recalibration.

The run below the 2019 lows fails

Technically, the EURUSD broke below the 2019 lows yesterday at 1.09236 on its way to a Asian session low price at 1.09038. The price could not get below the natural 1.0900 level. Moreover the pair started to move back above the September/year lows at the 1.0923-26 area. Once momentum started to develop above that area, the sellers turned to buyers. The price has wandered back higher. The bears were once again disappointed.

More upside momentum today will have traders looking toward the 1.09654 to 1.09692 area. The area includes:

  • Swing lows and highs at 1.09654 area,
  • The falling 100 hour MA at 1.0967, and the
  • 38.2% retracement at 1.09692

That cluster of resistance is key for the correction. Move above, muddies the water even further for the pair. We would have a failure of new lows AND a move back above the cluster of resistance too. It would not look so hot technically (for the bears that is).

For now, buyer are making a bullish play on the failure below the 2019 lows. It will take a move back below to get them more fully in control again. Holding keeps the buyers (at least short term) in control.