Run above the 1.1908 level fails.
The EURUSD in the early European session ran above the previous highs at 1.19043 and 1.1908. The price reached 1.1916 but quickly reversed. Buyers quickly turned to sellers.
The price over the last 6 hourly bars has been shopping between a low of 1.18308 and a high of 1.18697. We currently trade between those levels at 1.1853.
Technically on the downside the 100 hour moving averages at 1.18036. That is between a swing area defined by highs and lows going back to July 29 between 1.1801 and 1.18089. It will take a move below that swing area and then the rising 200 hour moving average 1.178462 tilt the bias more to the downside.
Recall from Monday and Tuesday the price did break the 200 hour moving average (for the 1st time since July 10), but each move below failed. The moving average is now higher from those levels (so it's an easier hurdle), but moving below would still a tilt the trading bias more to the downside (if the price can stay below).
The failure of the highs today once again gives sellers some hope that high is in place. The caveat is that the sellers need to do more to get the ball more rolling to the downside (like get below the MAs). Without doing that, the pair is in a bigger up and down range with 1.1695 as the low and 1.1904-16 as the high - with the MAs in between those extremes.
