The buyers had their shot...

You cannot deny the buyers had their shot and they flubbed it. The 200 day MA was broken once, twice and three times in trading today (see the 5-minute chart). The last look took the price to 1.1058 before the price fell back below. I gotta shut the door on that battle and give the sellers the victory. There should not be a 4th break. If there is all bets are off (RISK level for shorts).

The 200 bar MA is being tested on the 5-minute chart. The close from yesterday came in at 1.1012. The ECB decision on Thursday. It is expected that something (there are different scenarios) is going to happen. That "something" may be in the cards/priced in. The wild card to the rest of the day is the stock market. A tumble would likely lead to another break but those are the trading risks.... Absent that the sellers have their shot.