Trades at lowest level since December 1
The EURUSD has continued its move to the downside which was started on Friday against a topside trend line on the hourly chart. In trading yesterday, the pair remains below its 200 hour MA (the 100 hour moving average was close by as well). When the price fell below each of those moving averages and a rising trend line, buyers quickly turned to sellers and trended the price lower. The low however did fine support near prior lows from January 16 and January 27. That stalled the fall.
In trading today, the EURUSD initially move higher, but found resistance against a swing area between 1.20753 and 1.20865. The high stalled near the upper extreme not once but twice. That was a signal to the sellers and the price has pushed to new lows.
The run to the downside has now broken below the old floor area between 1.20529 and 1.20577. That is now close risk for shorts. The price should not go back above that area if the sellers are to remain in control (see red numbered circles).
Taking a look at the daily chart below, there was a another swing low going back to December near the swing lows from January trade. The break lower as the look of a neckline break of a head and shoulders formation. In addition, the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the November low was also broken at 1.20634. That may be a more conservative stop for shorts looking for more downside today and going forward.
If the sellers are to keep control and add to the control, getting below the September 1 high at 1.2010 is the next target followed by the 50% retracement 1.19752 and the 100 day moving average (blue line in the chart below) at 1.1954 (and rising). The price fell below its 100 day moving average during 4 trading days at the end of October and early November, but could not sustain downward momentum. Before that, the pair had not traded below its 100 day moving average since May 2020.