EUR/USD falls to fresh three-month lows as the dollar holds firmer on the day

Technical Analysis

Author: Justin Low | eurusd

EUR/USD falls to 1.1935, its lowest since 1 December 2020

EUR/USD D1 05-03
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Sellers are contesting a break below the February lows @ 1.2052-58 currently, with the drop taking price to its lowest levels in three months.

From a technical perspective, the 61.8 retracement level @ 1.1888 offers some support next before getting to the 200-day moving average (blue line) @ 1.1822.

But the 1.1900 level will also be a potential level that buyers might lean on as the downside push starts to gather pace upon a break of the 100-day moving average (red line) and trendline support yesterday post-Powell.

As much as the post-Powell narrative has significant repercussions for yields and stocks, the dollar is also one that could benefit strongly if the Fed so chooses to continue to Ferberize the market and let it fend for itself over the coming weeks.

Real yields in the US are at their highest levels since June last year and are roughly 40 bps off the lows seen in the first week of the year:

USGG10YR
That's a major boon for the dollar and it comes at a time when other central banks outside the Fed are fighting to challenge recent developments in the bond market instead.

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