EUR/USD grapples with key near-term level to start the session

Technical Analysis

Author: Justin Low | eurusd

The dollar is maintaining a slight advance as risk keeps more cautious

EUR/USD H1 13-10
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Despite the gains yesterday in US equities, major currencies didn't quite follow the script but today we are seeing some return to the norm as the less bright start to European trading for risk is coinciding with some mild strength in the dollar.

EUR/USD is tracking under 1.1800, trading at session lows of 1.1783, and now testing its 100-hour MA (red line) @ 1.1788.

Keep above that level and the near-term bias stays more bullish but break below an the near-term bias turns more neutral instead.

Of note, there are also large expiries seen at 1.1800 today so that may yet limit any upside price action in the pair ahead of North American trading.

Back to the technical levels, a push back under the 100-hour MA will then also draw the focus of the 200-hour MA (blue line) and trendline support nearby @ 1.1763-68.

Those two levels will offer some key near-term support for the pair in case sellers try to make a play to the downside in the sessions ahead.

The thing to watch out for today is the risk mood and that will impact the dollar side of the equation more heavily. The flows yesterday were a little bit disconnected, in the sense that FX did its own thing while stocks could have been driven by a whale push.

Putting the latter aside, a retreat in risk today could keep the greenback a little more underpinned and in the case of EUR/USD, a firm break under 1.1800 will be a good starting point for dollar buyers in general.

And a further push below 1.1763-68 will cement a more bearish near-term bias if sellers can manage that in the sessions ahead.

But so far, things are shaping up better for the greenback with AUD/USD also seen back under 0.7200 and USD/CAD keeping above 1.3100 for the time being as well.

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