EURUSD is all over the place too (but held the 1.1776)

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | eurusd

200 week MA stalls the fall.

You gotta be lucky today as the forex market is whipping around.  

Geopolitical news headlines, rethinking of the CPI data, add some volatility in crosses (see EURGBP), and you have some up and down potentially frustrating stuff going on if you zigged when you should have zagged.

For the EURUSD, the 1.1776 has been a level that I have been using as a bullish above and bearish below technical barometer this week.  Last week the price moved above the level but by Friday the price moved back below the line. 

This week, the price moved back above the line on Monday and part of Tuesday, but tumbled back below on the better JOLTs data on Tuesday. Bears back in charge.  .  

Yesterday, and into today, there were some tries on corrections above the key technical level (lower dollar on stocks and tensions), but those moves failed.  

This mornign, the US CPI data sent the pair racing higher (as did some buying of the EURGBP) and back through the 200 day MA and 200 hour MA/50% retracement at 1.1800 area (see post).  

With the talk of a Russia/China solution, talk of inflation data not as negative as first thought, and help from a reversal of the EURGBP, the pair reversed back lower.  

And where did the fall stall?  


The price action is just indicative of the headline risk, geopolitical risk, liquidity risk (from a Friday). All can be random at times (the 4 pm end of week London fixing is up next).   Those risks are hard to manage (they are invisible until they happen). 

On the other hand, the market price risk, can be hedged by traders using technical levels.  You just have to be a little lucky, maybe patient, and not get caught in the other risks at the wrong time. 

So traders who saw 1.1776 being tested and win (or at least you got the bounce that you expected).  You have good trade location and your risk can be defined. 

And if you get lucky and the end of week fixing and the London close, are full of buyers, you will be even more happy. If they are not buyers, you might get stopped out on a break back below the 1.1776 level after all.

That's trading on Friday with event/headline risk and liquidity risk at high levels.... If you get lucky and stick a toe in the water at the right time, you may be able to make a few pips....
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