The dollar is keeping lower to start the new week, despite the more tepid and slightly softer risk mood as we get things going in European morning trade today.
As the greenback gives back some of its gains from the latter half of last week, we're seeing EUR/USD run back up to test key near-term resistance currently.
Buyers managed to push back above the 200-hour MA (blue line) @ 1.1241 and are now challenging the 100-hour MA (red line) @ 1.1256.
Keep below the 100-hour MA and the near-term bias stays more neutral, with price action to be more caught in between the two key hourly moving averages.
But break above the 100-hour MA and we will see buyers start to seize more near-term control and potentially look towards 1.1275-80 next before re-approaching 1.1300.
Considering the current risk mood, it is hard to see the pair push much higher as long as investors are looking to keep more cautious and defensive amid virus jitters.
The resurgence in US cases is starting to prompt renewed virus restrictions and new outbreaks being reported in the likes of Beijing, Tokyo, and Australia only adds to the concerns in the market over the past two weeks.
That said, month-end and quarter-end rebalancing flows are still something to consider - even if you would think most would have been settled by last week.
For now, the overall picture is that the dollar is weaker and the best we can do is to be guided by the technical levels highlighted above.