The 100 hour MA stalled the rally
The EURUSD continued the upside momentum from yesterday in early Asian trading and into the early London session. However, the momentum faded after the pair reached the 100 hour MA (blue line). WHen the price moved back below a swing area at 1.1234-37, the bias tilted back to the downside.
The fall took the price to a low of 1.12046. The 1.1200 area is home to lows from Tuesday (1.12013) and yesterday (1.1199). That area would need to be broken to likely kick start more selling. A trend line is also in the 1.1200 area (neckline for a head and shoulder?). Stay above 1.1200 keeps the dip buyers happy. Move below the 1.1200 and the tilt goes even more to the downside. with the July low at 1.11927 the confirmation.
Looking at the daily chart below, the high today reached up toward the 100 day MA but stalleed ahead of that MA at 1.1247. A move above that level would be needed to give buyers more control.
A move even lower today (and below 1.1200) would target the 1.1180 low from June 18 and then 1.1174 which is the low from back in March. The lows for the year reached down to 1.1106-10 area. That area represents the April and May lows. They are the lowest lows since May 2017.
For now, the pair trades lower but lower support is putting a stall on the fall. If I were to eye a level(s) above, the 1.1123 is the close from yesterday. The 1.1131 area is home to the 100 and 200 bar MAs on the 5-minute chart below (blue and green lines). The price should not go above those MAs if the sellers are to remain in control.
