Tested in December. Price has not been above since September
The EURUSD is moving higher and trading near the highest level of the day at 1.1450 area. The move to the upside continues the run higher on Friday after Powell's less hawkish remarks (and despite the strong employment report). Today, German factory orders were weaker than expectations but retail sales in EU and German surprised to the upside.
Technically, the pair is getting closer to the 100 day MA at 1.14765. The highs in December tested the MA lines and backed off (see blue line). The last time the price was above the MA line was back at the end September. A move above that line would shift the bias more to the upside (with the December high at 1.1485, 1.1499 and the 50% at 1.15149 targets).
Before the key 100 day MA is a topside trend line connecting the most recent October and December highs. That comes in at 1.1456 currently - just a few pips away.
Let's face it, the EURUSD pair has been up and down over the last few months. These hurdles are indeed points where the "market" will likely use to lean against (profit takers and bears - are you one?). Traders who lean from the sale side, can always, reverse and buy on breaks above. That's what risk focused trading is all about.
Don't be surprised to see some stall. If you are long from below, you want to see the break of the trend line and then the battle against the 100 day MA will be the next key.
If the levels hold and the price rotates lower, eye the 100 bar MA on the 5-minute chart for clues. The price did fall back below that MA early European session/late Asian session, but marched higher on the failed break. The MA comes in at 1.14347. A move below, muddies the water for the trend like move higher today.
