EUR/USD not showing much poise as traders gear towards the ECB meeting tomorrow

Technical Analysis

Author: Justin Low | eurusd

EUR/USD is little changed on the day, keeping more sticky around 1.1600

EUR/USD H1 27-10
After the drop on Monday, the pair hasn't really done much as yesterday's slight advance was capped by the 200-hour moving average (blue line) with sellers retaining a more bearish near-term bias for the time being.

The confluence of the key hourly moving averages is now seen at 1.1623 and as long as price action keeps below that, sellers are in near-term control.

The limited movement so far also reflects a more tentative mood as traders await the ECB meeting tomorrow to perhaps provide some catalyst for a move.

Adding to that is large expiries close to and at 1.1600 (another one tomorrow too), helping to keep price action more contained alongside the lack of drive pointed out above.

The ECB isn't expected to present much changes tomorrow but the key thing to watch will be their language on the inflation front. If there is perhaps some concession on the transitory narrative, expect the market to keep pressuring the central bank with regards to rate expectations - as is already the case over the past few weeks.

But if the ECB pushes back on that, there might be scope for the euro to ease a little in the latter stages of the week with the downside bias looking to target the 12-13 October low @ 1.1525; all else being equal.
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