Erasing yesterday's FOMC run higher
The EURUSD is down testing the 100/200 hour MAs (and underside of broken trend line too).
The EURUSD raced higher yesterday after the FOMC rate decision and press conference, but what the Fed says, and what the bond market thinks are two different things. The Philly Fed data today also highlighted the inflation impact of late which runs counter to the Feds expectations. The 10 year yield is up over 10 bps now.
The fall back just cracked the 100 hour MA at 1.19302. The 200 hour moving averages at 1.1919. The underside of the broken trendline from yesterday's between those levels of 1.1921. The low just reached 1.19213 between the 100 and 200 hour MAs.
A break below the 200 hour moving average would once again tilt a bias more to the downside as the ups and downs continue. The pair has traded between 1.18816 1.19907 over the last six+ trading days (see red box). The high today fell just short of the March 11 high at 1.19895. The swing low going back to March 2 was at 1.19907. The high today reached 1.19883 before rotating back to the downside in the European session.
Yesterday, the low stalled ahead of recent lows going back to March 10 near 1.18816. In between sets the moving averages, and they inhibit the bias from more bullish two more bearish. At some point the parable break out of this up and down trading range. Non-trending transition to trending. The focus today is more bearish as yields rise and leads to a bias toward the USD.
