But price action is choppy around the MA level
The EURUSD has moved back above its 100 hour MA for the 2nd time today. The first look earlier in the NY session, found willing sellers. Will the 2nd look above keep the buyers in control.
Recall, getting back above the 100 hour MA is often a minimum move if the buyers are to wrestle control back from the sellers after a trend move lower (like in the chart above). Moving above, tips the bias a little more in the favor of the buyers. However, if the price has not ALSO already moved above the 38.2% retracement of the last trend move lower, it requires more upside momentum to give the buyers more comfort.
In the hourly chart above, the price is above the 100 hour MA, but still 26 pips or so away from the 38.2% of the last trend move lower at 1.19411. NOTE it is only of the last trend move lower - not the entire move lower from the Feb 25 high. It is the minimum correction target.
Once that 38.2% level is broken, the 50% and 200 hour MA are other upside targets (the 200 hour MA is moving lower and can catch up to the price while the price corrects). The 50% is at 1.19739. The falling 200 hour MA is at 1.1982. Bullish moves require getting above those minimum target levels.
So getting above the 100 hour MA is good news for dip buyers, but staying above is step one (that did not happen earlier but traders are trying again). Step 2 - in this chart - is to get and stay above the 38.2%. Do that and buyers/longs can feel a little better and hopeful push for the next targets in the step by step process. Failure to do that - and falling back below the 100 hour MA - spoils the bullish thoughts, and puts the sellers back in control.
