One step forward (up). One step back (down)
The EURUSD ran above its 100 hour MA as the Lagarde press conference. She said that risks to growth outlook are less pronounced which may have helped the tone but the price ran up and has now ran back down.
The 100 hour moving average break came in at at 1.10903. The run higher took the price up to 1.1108 which is near the 38.2% retracement at 1.11087 on the hourly chart above.
The price has since retraced all the way back down and even trades to new hourly bar lows.
One step forward (up). One step back (down).
Getting and staying above the 100 hour moving average would be nice for the buyers. The price has not close above the 100 hour moving average since last Friday. If the price can maintain above the moving average the 38.2% retracement 1.11087 and the 200 hour moving average at 1.11137 would be the next targets.
On the downside, there are a number of swing lows over the last few days starting at 1.10763 and extended to 1.10696. Also on the downside is the 100 day moving average currently at 1.10667. Yesterday the price down within 4 pips above that moving average for bouncing back higher.
One problem with the EURUSD is that the ranges week is only 47 pips. Non-trending begets non-trending. Traders will lean against the extremes and may even shorten the range until that time there is a shove outside the range..
The high this week moved up to 1.11174. The low was down at 1.10696.
Looking at the price action on the 5-minute chart below, the price is so far staying below the 100 hour MA at 1.10903 after the run higher and tumble back lower.