EUR/USD: Sellers want another bite at the cherry

Technical Analysis

Author: Justin Low | eurusd

Price falls back below the 200-hour moving average

And now moves towards a test of the 100-hour MA (red line) @ 1.1607. The dollar is bid across the board alongside the yen and swissie as minor risk off tones are being observed as the threat of US tariffs looms.

For EUR/USD, near-term price bias is now in limbo as buyers and sellers battle it out between the two key hourly moving averages. But with sellers quick to respond after price moved above the 200-hour MA (blue line), it's a sign that they're not out just yet.

As mentioned yesterday, any further downside move requires a hold below 1.1600. Failure to do so means that buyers will have reason to stay in the game.

Offers and resistance around 1.1650 is what is capping upside price action so far but with large expiries around 1.1600 and the 100-hour MA also sitting nearby it'll make for a bit of ping pong action as markets await the next catalyst to hit.

With Italian politics hardly affecting the euro, it's going to be all about risk/dollar sentiment once again. If price isn't able to keep below 1.1600, then I can't be convinced that there is a bearish trade to be had for the time being especially with large expiries potentially limiting the downside today.

If you're going with a trade war escalation trade, EUR/JPY or EUR/CHF may be more attractive propositions at this point in time.

- 1.1600-07 (bids, large expiries, 100-hour MA)
- 1.1578 (200-bar MA on H4)
- 1.1566-68 (100-bar MA on H4, 38.2 retracement level)
- 1.1550 (swing region)
- 1.1530 (weekly low, swing region)
- 1.1500 (bids, swing region)

- 1.1642 (200-hour MA)
- 1.1650-60 (swing region)
- 1.1690-00 (swing region, offers)
- 1.1712 (100-day MA)
- 1.1730-40 (swing region)

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