Taper (contingent on data) to start in September, end at the end of the year (contingent)

The decision by the ECB to start taper in September - contingent on data - with a reduction from 30B to 15B, then stop purchased altogether at the end of December, has not impressed the bulls/buyers

The EURUSD initially moved to a new high (and the highest level since May 16th, but the price has come back down on what is perceived as somewhat dovish firming of monetary policy. It is a start though not a hawkish one. Draghi up next.

Technically, the price has moved back down and is moving below the 200 hour MA at 1.17623. The next key area for me comes in at the 1.17245-32 area. Not far below that is the 38.2% of the move up from the May 29th low and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.17153 (blue line). Below that cluster of targets, opens the door for more downside.

The EURUSD has been in a narrow trading range for 6 or so days now. That range is only about 138 pips (low from June 6th to the high today - see "red box" in the chart above). That is very narrow for that time period. At some point there will be a break, but will it me today?

As I type, we are now testing the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart and extending the range. Bears are making a play. A break below will be now eyed. So far, however, the market is trying to stall the fall, but the bears are still in control.

Risk levels for sellers can be as high as the 200 and 100 hour MAs now at 1.1762 and 1.17768. Shorts will not want to see a move back above those MAs. Sellers want to see the support cluster broken and stay broken.

On a break, the 50% at 1.16797 is the next key target, followed by the swing low from June5 at 1.16523 and the 61.8% of the move up at 1.16394.

Looking at the daily chart below, the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart is joined by the 38.2% of the move up from the December 2016 low to the high in 2018. In addition, the lows from Nov/Dec 2018 (1.1712 and 1.1717 are the lows) are in the area too (see red circles). That increases that areas importance.

The low today so far comes in at 1.1717. Is the market going to wait for Draghi? Are the buyers at support firm in their commitment. Be aware. We are not "out of the red box" yet.