EURUSD stalls near lower trend line as the FOMC approaches, but there is room to roam lower.

EURUSD bears keep the trend going...

The EURUSD is trading near low levels and has moved close to a lower trend line at 1.1947. The low today has reached 1.1952 so far. WIth the FOMC approaching the bears (dollar bulls) are keeping the pressure on the pair.

If the Fed does come out more dovish - and/or the "market" decides the price has gone too far (we are down from 1.2413 on April 17)- traders will be watching what happens on a test of the 200 day MA at 1.2010. A topside trend line on the hourly chart is also at that level (see hourly chart above).

The move below that key 200 day MA was the first break below since April 21, 2017, over a year ago. A move back above today, would be a big fail.

Now the employment report is tomorrow, so the downside can be explored after a stronger number tomorrow, but to get above that level on the Fed today, would certainly muddy the water technically. I think it will be hard to do. So look for sellers near that level.

On the downside, if you look at the daily chart below, the move up from the November low targets the 61.8% of that move at 1.19355. The lows from January - and for 2018 - come in at 1.1915. That area (yellow area in the chart below), will be targeted on more hawkish Fed (or just continuation of dollar buying).

Another view on where the EURUSD is going technically, comes from the weekly chart below. Let's remember the move up from the 2016 low started at 1.03517 and it stalled this year at 1.2555. That is a good run higher.

Looking at the chart below, we spent most of 2018 waffling up and down near the highs. That area was busted on the break of 1.2153 at the end of last week. I have been writing about that for a while now. That break is significant.

On the downside on the weekly, the 1.1876 level was the swing low from 2010. I would think the "market" should remember that level.

Below that, the 38.2% of the move up from the 2016 low comes in at 1.17139. That level is also around the swing high from August 2015 at 1.1711.

That level is certainly a target that can be reached (over time) and it would still keep, the bullish run from the 2016 in tact. The price would have only corrected 38.2%. That is just a normal, modest correction.

The question perhaps, from a longer term perspective is does, the 50% ultimately get tested at 1.1469? That is also where the 200 week MA is located. That, however, is for another day/view in the future.

SUMMARY: My point is, there is room to roam in the EURUSD. The pair has made some key breaks over the last 8 or so trading days. We got below the 1.2153. We got below the 200 day MA. There is room to roam with 1.1876 and 1.1713 not out of the picture over time. Between the current price and those levels there will be other hurdles including the 1.1915-35 level today.

IF there is a surprise and the price does get back above the 200 day MA, watch for 1.20538 (50% of the move up from November). A move above those levels muddies the water, but the 1.2153 level will be another difficult level.

More bearish. We will see what the Fed thinks about inflation.