EUR/USD still going nowhere ahead of FOMC meeting decision

Technical Analysis

Author: Justin Low | eurusd

EUR/USD continues to trade in a narrow range this week

EUR/USD H1 20-03
The pair continues to hold above the 100-hour MA (red line) in trading this week but there isn't much on the euro side of the equation to really drive a break higher. Since the ECB meeting earlier this month, any potential factors that look set to drive the euro have gone stagnant as the central bank decidedly rules out a rate move this year.

Economic data releases have been slightly better for the Eurozone but it isn't going to change any rate hike pricing any time soon so that isn't going to contribute much upside to the single currency. As it stands, price is struggling to break above the 100-day MA @ 1.1367 and that remains a key resistance level to watch out for in the session ahead.

As we gear towards the FOMC meeting decision, expectations is for a slightly more dovish Fed but I reckon officials won't really sound all too dovish and markets will be left wanting for more given the way price has been behaving ahead of the meeting itself.

Lower dot plots projections could help to see the dollar weaken slightly on the initial reaction but I would expect price action in EUR/USD to be contained below the 1.1400 handle. Swing region resistance around 1.1410-20 will also play a part in keeping a lid on the pair.

That said, in the aftermath I wouldn't expect much to change for the dollar given that markets have not priced in any rate hikes at all this year by the Fed. Unless the central bank communicates a strong message on the balance sheet runoff, there probably won't be much to drive EUR/USD away from the 1.1300 to 1.1400 range we're seeing now.

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