Chart of EUR/USD via Lloyds (dated October 4)
We are monitoring short-term price action closely. Our core outlook is for a move towards 1.1500 support, which should define the lower boundary of a medium-term range. However, our short-term studies still suggest there is a risk of a broader correction.
- Intra-day resistance lies at 1.1805, a move up through there and then 1.1860 would suggest that said phase is underway, potentially back to 1.20-1.21 again.
While under the current trend remains down.
Long term, we believe 1.0350 was a major low, which completed the cycle from the 1.60 2008 highs. This should see an eventual move back towards 1.30-1.35, but for now, we look for medium-term consolidation under 1.21/1.23 resistance. 1.15-1.11 is important support on pullbacks in this regard.
