Here is one for the Elliot Wave technical analysis people, from Bank of America / Merrill Lynch (via eFX)
Bank of America Merrill Lynch FX Technical Strategy Research notes that the decline in the USD represented by the Bloomberg US dollar index 'BBDXY' is digesting oversold conditions in a supportive technical area and previously, this area was where markets bought USD.
"As long as the BBDXY remains above support at 1150, the potential for a bounce, maybe even a rally to the upper 1100's"trend line break" area, remains.
>> This favors: EUR/USD correcting the 5 wave rally from the December low to at least the 1.15-1.1440 area, 1.1350 and possibly 1.1225.
However,we think if the BBDXY marks a weekly close below 1150, it would continue to retrace the 2014-2017 uptrend. Fibonacci shows it could fall to 1108.
This would favor >> EUR/USD continuing its rally to the market quoted 1.20 area. Above that is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2172," BofAML argues.
