EURUSD tests the 50%/200 hour MA and backs off. The 100 hour and 100 day MA is support below.

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | eurusd

Some bullish/some bearish technical clues as traders flow the price action.

The EURUSD had some big swings so far today. The initial move was higher.  That took the price above the 200 hour MA and 50% retracement near 1.1741-45 area at the time.   The high price extended above a topside trend line, but reversed as the poll pias swung toward Pres. Trump. The move lower took out the lowest low since July 24 at 1.16109, but only to 1.16016 (around 9 pips lower).  The price started to push back higher.

Some bullish/some bearish technical clues as traders flow the price action.

That move higher stalled near the 100 hour and 100 day MAs (see blue line), but could not extend below Monday's lows near 1.16221.  The Monday morning session saw the price extend and develop more value above its 100 day moving average at 1.16649 and 100 hour moving average at 1.16690.  The move higher moved up to retest the 200 hour MA and 50% retracement currently between 1.17351 and 1.17409. The current price trades at 1.1717.

The technical point is that there has been a good bit of volatility. The technical levels are slowing moves, but not perfectly. The high price extended above a trendline, but only by a few pips (9 pips above trend line).   The low price extended below a swing low floor, but only by a few pips (9 pips to be exact),. In between the 100 hour MA stalled a rally give or take 6 or so pips.  More recently, the 200 hour moving average and 50% retracement has stalled the rally (with modest breaks above those levels before rotating lower.  It is horse-shoes and hand grenades. That is, technical levels are slowing, not necessarily stopping. That can be expected given the liquidity, headline news, uncertainty.

Where do we stand technically?

The 200 hour moving average of 50% retracement remains a key area.  It would take momentum above that area to tilt the bias more to the upside (followed by a break of the old trendline).  

On the downside, the 100 hour moving average at 100 day moving average remain a key area as well at 1.16649 to 1.16690.  It would take momentum below that area to tilt the bias more to the downside.

In between is the noise from buyers and sellers battling it out.  

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