Near 61.8% of the move down since the June FOMC meeting
he 61.8% of the move down from the June 13th high to the low on June 21 comes in at 1.17191. We currently trade around that level. The June 13th high was the day of the last Fed hike when the Feda also increased the number of hikes in 2018 to 4 from 3. The price moved to a high today of 1.1726. We trade just below it now.
Technically, the key level below will be the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.16735. Remember that MA stalled the rallies on June 26, June 29, July 4. Yesterday, the price moved above, retested the level and rallied higher today. Go below would be more bearish with other MAs (100 hour MA at 1.1662, 200 hour MA at 1.16422 and 100 bar MA on the 4-hour at 1.16327.
On a move higher, the pair is entering a swing area from the end of May, early June at 1.17245 to 1.1745. A move above 1.1745 opens the door for more upside momentum.
