29 pip range yesterday. 27 pips so far today
The EURUSD traded in a small 29 pip trading range yesterday - closing lower. Today the ranges 27 pip so far and trading higher. The high price did take out the high from yesterday to 1.21971 (the high yesterday reached 1.21933. The current price is trading below those highs at 1.2188. The range near the midpoint of the week is only 57 pips. That's not a lot. The high reached 1.2201 on Monday. The low was also on Monday at 1.21442.
Technically, the pair moved back above its 200 hour moving average at 1.2185 (green line) and earlier above its 50% midpoint of the range from last week at 1.21786. The 100 hour MA is down at 1.21636. It would take a move below each of those levels to give the sellers more control. Staying above and the buyers still are in play (and holding onto at least some control).
On the topside the 1.2200 level seems to be a tough ceiling. There are 1.14B of options expiring this morning at the 1.2200 strike. An additional 1.66B will expire at the level on June 11 (Thursday - after CPI). There may be some influence from an option perspective at that level.
Getting above - with momentum - should solicit more upside probing with 1.22129 to 1.22199 as the next upside target area.
Move below the 200 hour MA at 1.2185 will then look to get below the 50% at 1.21786 and the 100 hour MA at 1.21636. Below that level, and the door opens up further in the downward direction with the low for the week, not out of the question (the average trading range over the last 22 days is 63 pips - a move to the low would be only 53 pips).
Traders can get comfortable in a narrow trading range (kinda like sleeping). Eventually, even bears wake up from the winter hibernation and scurry for food and new life. That will ultimately happen. In the meantime, look for the little technical clues, control your risk from the bias, and if you are lucky, you will anticipate "the move" (or lose a little if you don't).
