Moves below the 1.12508 level
The EURUSD trades to new session lows and targets the 50% retracement of the move up from the May 30 low. We just extended to that level as I type. That level comes in at 1.12312.
The better retail sales data today has:
- Kept the price below the 100 day MA at 1.12687
- Moved the pair below the 38.2% of the move up from the May 30 low at 1.12586
- Moved the price below the swing low from June 7 (and earlier today) at 1.12508
The close risk for shorts is now either the 1.12508 level or the 38.2% at 1.12586. For traders happy/comfortable with their short position, 100 hour MA at 1.12687 is a "give more room" risk. A move above that level would say "something else is up".
The better data has lowered the odds of a cut in rates. For June the chances of a cut are down to 23% from 31%. The July cut expectations still remains high at 88% (down from 89%).
