Sellers remain in control
The EURUSD sellers remain in control. The price has moved down to a low of 1.1117. Going back to May and June 2017, there were swing lows at 1.1108 and 1.1118 before the pair started the push higher (ending up at 1.12555 in February 2018).
Staying on the daily chart, if the support lows do not hold the next target would be down at 1.1054. That is the lower trend line connecting lows going back to October 2017, August 2018, November 2018 (see green numbered circles).
Drilling to the hourly chart, in addition to the 1.1108-18 area from the daily, a lower trend line connecting recent lows cuts across at 1.1104 (and moving lower). That too should be considered as a level to get below for the trend to continue it's run.
A topside trend line on the same chart comes in at 1.1142 (see chart below).
What would kill some of the bears control?
For this I have to drill to the 5 minute chart. The minimum hurdle that would start to take some of the bear away from the sellers would be a move above the 1.11396 level. That is the 50% of the day's trading range and also near the swing low from yesterday. The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is also moving toward that level (currently at 1.1142). Moving above those levels would be the minimum to take more control from the sellers now. PS the 200 bar MA did a good job of stalling the market at the high today. It is at 1.11477 currently and would be another hurdle on a rally.
The trend lower remains the dominant but the swing target area is putting a cause for pause at the moment
