EURUSD trades to the lowest level since October 15 but loses downside momentum

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | eurusd

Underside of the broken trend line stalls the EURUSDs fall

The EURUSD kinda "sidewayed its way" above a trend line yesterday (it broke but it was helped by the downward slope).  When you get that type of break, traders hope for some sort of momentum to upside "just because". The risk is it can just do what it did.....sideways through the line and don't go very far. The price waffled in a narrow range. 

Underside of the broken trend line stalls the EURUSDs fall
So today, when the highs from yesterday could not be broken, sellers put a lid on the pair and the price rotated lower. 

THe run lower today, did make a new trend move low (and traded at the lowest level since October 15). However, that sideways broken old trend line stallled the fall (that happens a lot too) at the 1.1010 level. The price is currently trading around 110.19.  

What next?

Looking at the daily chart below, the move up from the October1 low to the October high has the 50% midpoint at 1.10288. The price has traded above and below that 50% level the last 3 trading days. So there is a apprehension to go lower. However with the price currently below that 50% level, use it as a barometer for the bulls and bears today. Stay below and the bears have control. Move above and  they have less control.  

EURUSD on the daily chart

Admittedly, I am trying to find a reason in the pair that makes sense. The "sidewaying through the trend line" that is not followed by momentum can do that.  However, at some point "the market' also has to make up it's mind on what it wants to do around the 50% level.   

PS the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is around the 1.1028 level currently. A move above would not be good for sellers.  Risk for shorts.  
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