Swing level between 1.16016 and 1.16116 keep a lid on the pair so far today
Recall from previous posts, that the 1.16016 to 1.16116 area was swing lows going back to September and November 2020. See the red circles in the chart below. The price is not traded back below those levels until last week. The last five trading days has seen the price trade near those levels. On Thursday and Friday, the highs for the day stalled within that swing area. Trading on Monday saw the price move back above - and close above - but today the price is back below the level as traders ponder whether to extend lower or fail and move back to the upside with 1.16634 – swing low from August - and the 1.1700 area as the next upside targets from the daily chart (near the 38.2% retracement and swing lows going back to March/early April 2021).
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the corrective move higher yesterday tried to extend above the 38.2% retracement of the last move down from the September 22 swing high at 1.16356, but those attempts stalled and the price rotated back down toward the 100 hour moving average in the US afternoon session (blue line in the chart below).
In the Asian session today, that moving average was broken, and apart from a few modest looks above the moving average in the early US session (which stalled within the resistance area from the daily chart between 1.16016 to 1.16116), the MA is providing resistance in up and down trading.
Sellers are more in control below the 100 hour moving average and the 1.16116 level. As long as the price can remain below, the tilt is in the favor of the sellers/downside. The double bottom from last week at 1.15619 is the obvious next target from the hourly chart.
Conversely, if the 1.16116 level is able to be broken, a move back toward the 38.2% retracement at 1.16356 followed by the downward sloping trendline at 1.16478 (and moving lower) and the 200 hour moving average at 1.16531 would be targeted. The price has not traded above its 200 hour moving average since September 14.
