100 day MA and 50% retracement being approached
The AUDUSD has been moving steadily lower over the last 5 days of trading. Over that time, the pair has moved from a high of 0.8162 to a low today of 0.7868 - a near 300 pip move lower (about a 3.6% decline). Nearly all of the move up from the last surge higher (starting on May 8th) has been retraced.
On the way lower, the pair has been able to move below some key technical levels. Looking at the four-hour chart above, the price fell below 2 separate trend lines and the 100 bar moving average in trading yesterday. That represented a key break, and the pair has continued the move lower in trading today.
Looking at the daily chart below, the pair is approaching the next key support target. This level comes in at the 0.7847 level. Both the 100 day moving average (blue line in the chart below) and the 50% retracement of the move up from the April low to the may high converge at that level. I would expect that the market with respect those 2 key technical levels and stall against the key level at least on the 1st look - with stops on a move below.
The move lower in the AUDUSDhas been helped by a stronger USD and also from a decline it the price of iron ore over that time period (see chart below). The move higher off the low has corresponded with the rebound in the iron ore(both started in early April.
