Steps lower into support....
The AUDUSD last week stalled at 0.7695 not once but twice. Nice double top....
If you look at the daily chart (see chart below), the price of the pair has traded a number of times above the 0.7700 level since May 2016 (9 months). However, of the 15 days that price has been above that level, there have only been 3 days when the price closed above 0.7700. Buyers are having trouble maintaining the price above the 0.7700 level. That was the peak TWICE last week (see hourly chart above). If we are to go higher, the price needs to get and stay above that 0.7700 level.
The fall lower today, was helped by the price action and technicals on the 5-minute chart. Looking at that chart, the price fall in the Asian session started to find sellers leaning against the 200 bar MA and then the 100 bar MA (green and blue lines). The final push lower took the price down to a big support level at the 100 hour MA (at 0.76305 now). That MA held support like a charm on the test today. You can see it on the hourly chart above. You can see the price action on the 5-minute chart below (the overlay of the MA on that chart). Buyers leaned where risk could be defined and limited.
What now?
Watch 0.7650. That level was a swing high on Feb 2nd and it was a swing low today. On the 5 minute chart the 100 bar MA is around that level. That MA held on the 5 minute chart today before the last leg lower. Stay below is more bearish.
Support at 100 hour MA below.
Resistance at 100 bar MA on 5-minute chart.
PS. RBA on tap at 10:30 PM ET/ 0330 GMT. No change expected.
PSS. UGH. I hate posting, then looking up and seeing I stomped on something Ryan or Adam did previously. Sorry Ryan for stomping!
