Trades back below 100 day MA
The better than expected Canada retail sales has sent the USDCAD lower and back below the 100 day MA at the 1.32947. The low has extended to 1.3287. The lows last week after the US FOMC decision saw the price move below that key moving average, but the price fall stalled ahead of the 50% retracement of the move up from the February 16th low. That level comes in at 1.3271. The low last week stalled at 1.3276.
The shorts have the 2nd shot to push below that 50% level. A move below and the next targets come around the 1.3209 area where the 61.8% and swing high from February 22 comes in.
Close risk at the 100 day MA (up to 1.3300) now. Get below the 1.3271 is the next close target.
Taking a look at the daily chart below, the pair rebounded to the 50% of the move down from the Jan 2016 high twice (each time inching above and falling back down the next day). The move higher this month sniffed the level (if you call within 40 pips a sniff). The price is back down below that 100 day MA now.
The range over the last 7 months has a low at the 1.2967 level and a high of 1.35978. The midpoint of that range is 1.32824. That is where we are trading now.
The market is thinking about going lower. It is doing it at an area where it there is good support. It needs to break through to start the move to the bottom half of the 7 month range. Off the daily chart, the highs from Feb came in at 1.3211 and 1.32089. The 38.2% of the 7 month range is 1.3208. The 200 day MA is at 1.3180.
When the market consolidates markets ebb and flow. The economic data is holding in there. There needs to be pushes though. Otherwise the sellers turn back to buyers and visa versa. Get below the 1.3282 and then the 1.3271 now.
