ANSWER: Not by a lot...
The 10 year yield is trading lower to 2.37% from around 2.40% yesterday (is is down 2.7 bps today). US stocks are softer as the market digests political events (modestly). As a result, you might expect a softer USDJPY.
Well it is down about 6-8 pips on the day currently, but it is just hangin. The range for the day is 51 pips. The 22-day average (about a month of trading) is at 87 pips. So volatility is low. The midpoint of the high (114.12) to low (113.617) range today is 113.87. We trade a few pips from that level.
The market is deciding what to do...but not being influenced by wiggles and waggles out there (too much at least).
Technically, we are back below the 114.00 level. There was a couple looks above the 114.00 level (once in the early Asian session and once in the London morning session). The last 7 hours have been below 113.95.
Is it as simple as 114.00 ceiling and see if it stays below, there is more selling in stocks, perhaps bond yields move lower too? Sounds good to me from what I see.
As I type, the bond yield just wiggled from down 2.7 bp to down 1.8 bp. The USDJPY wiggled to 114.00 currently. Do we hold? Do we break? Do we care?
Earlier at the start of the day I wrote:
"The fallout from the firing of the FBI director Comey is in the air as stories (and theories) circulate to the implications from the decision (i.e., getting cooperation for policy in the House and Senate on things like healthcare, tax reform, etc.). As a result, markets may be a little more choppy. "
The USDJPY has followed that pattern for the day. We are trying to see if the swings can make a break for it now.
