Below 50% of recent move higher
Let's face it...the EURUSD is down. There was some dollar buying overall, but activity remains on the light side. The EURUSD range for the day is only 62 pips. The 22-day average is 97 pips. So volatility remains down so far. There is room to roam (i.e. extend the range),but it also seems the market may be looking forward the "big events" this week including Yellen testimony (10 am ET Wednesday) and at the end of the week when the US NFP is released (Est. 180K). The Fed is looking toward the data/the market is too.
Technically, looking at the hourly chart, the price corrected in the Asia-Pacific session (follow the AUDUSD?), and fell in the European session. On the way down, the pair cracked below the 100 hour moving average at the 1.1000 level (blue line in the chart below). It also fell below the 50% retracement of the recent move higher from the October 28 low to the October 30 high. That level comes in at the 1.0984 level (close resistance now). The next target is the 61.8% at 1.0963. A move below that level should open the door for some further downside momentum.
Yesterday, the 100 hour MA provided the support. Today, will the role be reversed? Look for patient sellers against the level on corrections (at 1.0994 currently). Close resistance will be eyed at the 50% now at 1.0984. I know these ranges are tight but that is what the market action is giving us at the moment as traders keep action contained.
