Moving average and 50% retracement at the 1.0660 level.
The EURUSD is testing/moving below the 100 day MA and the 50% of the move down from the February 2nd high. Those levels comes on in at 1.0660. We price just traded down to 1.0656. The price is waffling above and below the dual technical level. There is a battle going on.
The EURUSD moved above the the 100 day MA on Friday and squeezed up to the 1.0700 level (or close to it) on Friday. The 61.8% of the move down from Feb 2nd came in at that level. The price backed off into the close.
Today, the high extended up to the February 8th swing high at 1.07135. The move back below the 1.0700 level, helped to turn the pair around and toward the key level at 1.0660.
Going forward now, traders who are short (and looking for lower levels) will want to see the sellers continue the move lower with the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart the next target. That MA comes in at 1.06349 currently. If that MA is tested, look for buyers to patiently enter there (profit taking and perhaps dip buying as well).
Risk for shorts looking for downside might up around the 1.0678 area (38.2% of the move down). More patient sellers might wait for a move above the 50% at the 1.0685 level.
Is it ok to buy here? This level is a key support target. ON Friday, the price stalled around this level before moving above and finding buyers. However, because it is so key, you want to see the traders to react fairly soon. Then anticipate the upside to work hard around the 1.0678 area.
PS Mario Draghi speaks in Frankfurt at 9:30 AM ET.
