Can it close below the consolidation midpoint today?
The EURUSD has just made a new day low (below 1.0933).
The pair was NOT able to hold below the 1.0964 level. That was the low from yesterday and also represents, the 50% retracement of the move up from the March low to the May high (see daily chart below). However, the pair was able to stay below the 50% of the trend leg lower at 1.09745. New lows are being made.
Technically for traders who are short, they will likely now focus on the 1.0964 with more interest.
Why?
Well. today we traded above and below the 100 day MA at the 1.10142 for the 7th day in 8 trading days. The market is unsure of the next move, it tried higher last week. This week is more negative. Today, the market has put some distance between the 100 day MA (at 1.10142) and the current price at 1.0937. So this may be a break away.
The other key level becomes that 50% retracement level. The price has been non trending for 4-5 months since bottoming in March. Most of the time over the last 2 1/2 months, the price has closed above the 1.10963 midpoint. IN fact there are only 4 closes below 1.0963 since April 27th (there are more days where the price traded below but only 4 closes below and they occurred at the end of May/beginning of June). Stay and close below this level will give the bears another feather in their caps from a technical perspective.
Is it time to spend more time on the lower side of the non -trending range? Today is a test for the sellers and buyers as well. Who wants it more?
