Tested and held key resistance on correction earlier
The EURUSD fell outside the Red Box defined by 1.0777 on the bottom and 1.1465 on the top in yesterday's trading. In reality the bottom extreme is an area. That area I defined between 1.0777 and 1.0821. Why there? Because there have been a number of swing levels in that area going back to May 2015. Yes, there were breaks - last year in November and for two days in January 2016 - but that area held the lows otherwise.
In trading today, the price corrected higher, and although the price moved above the 1.0777 level, the higher area extreme found sellers against the 1.0821 area. That was good new for the bearish bias and the price has moved lower with some help from the retail sales today.
What next?
The low has reached 1.07226. The low yesterday reached 1.07086. That low took out the low for the year from early in January at 1.0710 and 1.0711. Guess what? We need a push below that area (and 1.07000) and stay below, but the bias is clearly bearish and we have a good chance to extend.
Where is risk?
Looking at the 5-minute chart, keep an eye on corrections to 1.0744. That level was a ceiling, floor, it broke through on the Retail sales and have used it as a ceiling now...(see chart below). Stay below that level for shorts now (RISK level).
