This would be the 6th straight increase
The EURUSD has move higher in trading today as traders adjust to the idea the EU has bottomed. Bond yields are also higher on the day. The FOMC decision yesterday kept all the doors open with the Fed standing in the middle of the room wondering which one to go through and when. The April data is coming and that is the focus now.
Technically, the price bottomed and peaked at trend line levels. The low was also near the low from the post-FOMC decision and the 50% of the days trading range. The high trend line stalled the rally (trend line currently comes in at 1.1255 and rising). The 1.1209 level was broken in the move higher this is the 61.8% of the all time range for the EUR since its introduction (2000 low to 2008 high). There is other key resistance in the 1.1266-79 area where swing lows from Jan and Feb and the 38.2% of the trend move lower from the December high is found (see daily chart below). The 100 day MA is fast approaching at the 1.1311 level.
Looking at the 5 minute chart, the pair corrected near the 50% of the sharp move higher and has bounced higher. Watch the 1.1180 for intraday clues (post data). The high yesterday was at 1.1186 and the 38.2% of the range today comes in at 1.1180. The pair just tested this level on the 5 minute chart.
There is a lot of data out today with March personal income and personal spending (+0.2% and +0.5%), 1st quarter Employment cost index (+0.6% est), PCE deflator data for March, and weekly claims (+290K). Later the Chicago PMI is expected to rise to 50 from 46.3 for the month of April. With 1Q GDP behind us the market might pay more attention to the April day more (claims and Chicago PMI. It is all about the escaping out of the transitory effects of the 1Q.
PS for the streak to remain alive at 6, the close from yesterday came in at 1.1126
