Expectation: 245K NFP, 5.5% Unemployment

The actual estimate might be a bit lower given the weaker ADP (although initial claims were better).

Adams Preview: Non-farm payrolls preview: By the numbers
Greg's Infograph: Infograph: Preview of the March US employment report

A number<200k should be bullish for the EURUSD
A number >250k should be bearish for the EURUSD.

Technically, the price of the EURUSD has been able to stay above the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart below) and has extended higher in a pre-market illiquid move (this is what you wanted BLS for putting the figure out on Good Friday? Next year, look at a calendar and plan ahead!!!!).

Targets above on a weak number:

  1. 1.0948-63. The 1.0948 is the high from March 27. The 1.0952 is trend line from Feb 26 high. The 1.0963 is the 200 bar MA on the 4 hour chart (not shown). A move above this area opens the door for further upside momentum
  2. 1.1013. High from March 25
  3. 1.1035. High from March 23
  4. 1.1051. High correction price from last weeks trading (March 25)

Targets on a stronger number.

  1. 1.0863. 200 hour MA
  2. 1.0826. 38.2% of the move up from the March 13 low
  3. 1.0804. 100 hour MA (blue line).
  4. 1.0756/59. 50% of the same move up from March 13 low. Also 1.0759 is the low price going back to September 2003

All risk is high: Event, Liquidity, and Market risk. Anything can happen as we already saw with the quick move higher. The market is expecting weak. We will see if it comes through.