Swing lows from 2015 tested

The EURUSD has moved lower in trading today and has tested a key swing area from 2015. The swing low on April 13, 2015 came in at 1.0520. The swing low on Dec 3rd, 2015 came in at 1.05187. We are trading at the 1.0421 level now. .

Looking more recently at the daily chart above, there have been some other swing lows/highs in the 1.0499-1.0520 area. Last week, the pair traded below that swing area to a low of 1.0493 but quickly rebounded. We will call that a failed break.

Looking at the hourly chart, the pair had some volatility around the Trump speech time, but has been trending lower. The pair moved below the 61.8% at 1.05455 and for the most part, stayed below that level. That is risk for shorts now.

The question now will the buyers lean in the support area looking for a bounce (taking profit). The sellers remain in control and with the Fed more in play for March and Trump getting a passing grade on his speech last night, the dollar buyers are firmly in the drivers seat. The technicals are supporting that idea too.