Ceiling from February tested and held
The EURUSD continued what it started yesterday after the worse than expected US retail sales and rallied higher. However, as the price approached the next major target (1.1449 - see daily chart below), the price stalled (the high reached 1.14438)
The range so far today is about 105 pips. The average over the last 22 trading days (around a month) is 139 pips. So there is some wiggle room for an extension but understand that there are a number of European nations on holiday today (Ascension day). As a result, the high may be in place. We will see what the US data at 8:30 AM ET can do. It will take some bearish news - i.e. jobless claims rising back toward the 300K area - to likely get to price back to the highs (my guess at least).
Is it safe to sell? It is safer. The 1.1449 level was a level traders can see and therefore define and limit risk. The price has moved over 300 pips higher in 3 trading days. I would look for patient sellers on rallies toward 1.1429-34 area now. The midpoint of the day's range comes in at 1.13918 (see chart below) A move below it, should get some of the buyers thinking it might be time to lighten up a bit more.
