100 day MA at 1.1155 today
The EURUSD price action yesterday fell below the low from may at the 1.1065 level to 1.1061. However, the March high at 1.1051 (broken at the end of April), could not be reached. The FOMC minutes led to up-and-down action in the Asia-Pacific session. The European session, the tone has been more positive in the price has been able to extend above the 100 day moving average, which day comes in at 1.1155. The high for the day extended to 1.1180.
Admittedly, that key moving average has done little to stop the rally, or increase upside momentum on the break (see action above and below the 11155 level in the 5 minute chart above). That tells me the market is still unsure of the directional bias. It wants to be more bullish (bearish USD) but it does not love the idea. The price action since the Chicago Fed Nat Index (-0.15 vs 0.00 est and -0.36 last month) and the US initial claims (274K vs 270K) are also signalling a choppiness. The pair is trading between the 100 (at 1.1135) and 200 bar MA (at 1.1120) and around the 50% midpoint of the days range (at 1.11299).
If you must trade, I have the feeling it is a try it and hope play. There are no get rich quick trading moves going on here (well maybe the buyers on the low trend line might have had a nice run - see 5 minute chart).
Fischer and Dragh speak later this afternoon. Maybe there will be some insight from each of them, which might give traders something to go on. Right now, the