What are the technical's saying?
Looking at the strongest and weakest right now the GBP is the strongest, while the CAD is the weakest. So where is the strength in the GBPCAD coming from?
Looking at the USDCAD, it has moved sharply higher and that is the big contributor to the GBPCAD (USDCAD has moved 0.80%). In contrast the USD is weaker vs the GBP and that too is contributing to the GBPCADs upside, but it is only by 0.15%.
So most of the action is a result of the USDCAD change.
Technically, looking at the USDCAD, the pair based vs the 100 hour MA, broke above 100 hour MA, 38.2%, 200 bar MA on the 4-hour at 1.25916, the 50% of the move down form the August 15 high at 1.26086, and now the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour at 1.2616. The pair has been trending.
What happened in the GBPCAD on the hourly?
The base today was against a lower trend line. The price moved above the 38.2% at 1.62188, It moved above the high from last week at 1.62519 and most recently the 100 bar MA, 50% retracement and a topside channel trend line at 1.6282-846. That area is now close support.
So like the USDCAD, we are seeing technical breaks in the GBPCAD. The most recent at the 1.6282-84 and that is the risk for longs now.
Taking a broader look at the GBPCAD by looking at the daily chart, the price has moved above a risk ceiling at 1.6203 to 1.6236 (yellow area). That opened the upside for the pair. and the price has continued the run higher. Above the pair is approaching a dissection of two trend lines at 1.6347 currently. That will be a key are for the pair going higher.
SUMMARY: The GBPCAD is the biggest gainer today. It has been influenced by the run up in the USDCAD, but has some bullish technical breaks on it's own right. The move higher took back the break of a floor area (failed break) at the 1.6203-36. That has traders thinking "it may be time for a rebound". However, there is a key topside target at 1.6347 to get to and through.
