50% retracement holds.

The GBPUSD moved below the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart BUT has tested the 50% of the move up from the October 25th low at 1.23774 level - and held (see chart below). The 50% also corresponds with some swing lows in last weeks trading (see red circles). There were breaks below admittedly, but they were before and after the election. The test and holding is leading ot a move back higher. The 200 bar MA at 1.2396 now becomes close risk.

Sellers tried, but they ran into support.

What would give buyers more confidence.

  1. Staying above 1.2396 (200 bar MA on 4-hour).
  2. Looking the 5-minute chart below, the 200 bar MA comes in at 1.24236 currently. We just tested that level and held. A move above would be more bullish
  3. Getting above that level would next target the 38.2% at 1.24358
  4. Then the 50% at 1.23534 and the 200 bar MA at the 1.24534/1.2455 area.

Also keep an eye on the EURGBP. After moving higher earlier in the day, the price has moved back lower and is getting closer to the 100 day MA at 0.86211. The recent lows got back down to 0.8632. That pair may be an influence on the GBPUSD (and the EURUSD for that matter).