100 and 200 hour MA at the 1.3196-98

The GBPUSD has been on a more bearish bias today after the Retail sales came in weaker than expectations at -0.9% vs -0.4%. That sent the pair to the sessions lows at 1.3154. Admittedly the pair has been trading in a choppy up and down action since that low. As the EURUSD rebounded on Draghi's early comments, the GBPUSD did too and in the process the price moved above the 200 and 100 hour MA at the 1.3195-98 area as traders were squeezed (to 1.3211-12 area).

Since then the price has for the most part stayed below that area (the high reached 1.3201 but was quickly rejected).

We are now seeing a move back toward the lows.

If I were to tell the technical story

  1. Choppy trading influenced by event and liquidity risk
  2. We held the 100 and 200 hour MA on the last look. The price action and tools my not work during most volatile times, but as markets settle, the sellers leaned there. So that is the risk for shorts. Stay below more bearish.
  3. The 1.3130 level is a level to eye below as the next target. The low from July 15 was at that level. The low correction after the move higher yesterday stalled at that level.

The "look out for" technical look comes from what might be a reverse head and shoulder on the daily. That makes the lower targets important. If the price cannot make it through the 1.3130 area, that may give shorts cause for pause....